Thursday, February 3, 2011

India on Egypt - to speak or not to speak


I watched with interest a debate on Times Now about Indian government’s silence (read not taking a stand) on the crisis in Egypt. The UPA has decided to sit on the fence by saying that this is Eqypt’s internal matter. The truth is that the government is lost on how to respond to the situation, which in this case may prove to be an advantage. ‘Intellectuals’ in the media who have little understanding of Arab politics have been aggressively trying to push the government to take a stand, and generate a few more debate topics.


The most absurd reasoning I heard during the debate was about India and Egypt being old allies as they are ancient civilizations and founding members of the Non Aligned Movement (NAM). The world has changed more since the cold war days than it did from the time of the Pharaohs to the Second World War. The only way Egypt is connected politically to India is through the latter’s backing of the Palestinian movement, seen by many analysts as a pro-Arab policy. India’s sympathy towards the Arab cause is not difficult to understand. Any foreign policy that is seen as pro-Israel has the potential to be propped up as anti-Muslim by vested interests of the Mulayam Singh and Laloo Prasad types, and any government that has the Congress in it will be loathe to the idea. With Israel declaring its support for Hosni Mubarak, a clear dimension has been added to crisis as far as India is concerned – supporting Mubarak can be seen as antagonizing Indian Muslims.

The US has mildly declared support for the uprising by asking for a peaceful transition of power, perhaps accepting that Mubarak has no chance. In matters such as these, there is rarely a middle path. Not openly backing the incumbent will eventually be counted as support to the dissidents. India’s problem is that it cannot even say what the US has said, and the reason for this lies within its own borders – Kashmir. Open support for a mass uprising anywhere in the world will result in fingers being pointed towards Kashmir. Though Kashmir is a much more complex problem compared to Egypt, parallels can be drawn for convenience. That has left the government with no option but to sit on the fence.

I rarely find myself agreeing with the current government, but on this matter I stand with them. I do not believe every country has an obligation to have a policy on every matter, especially when it is not sure of the outcome. That is the reason even the opposition has kept quite so far. The truth is that no one understands what sort of changes Egypt or the Arab world will see as a result of these uprisings. Some have voiced concerns that the new governments will be headed by Islamic fundamentalists who are waiting for American supported leaders to get toppled. Alternative political outfits with names such as Muslim Brotherhood do not inspire much confidence in the liberal lot. History shows that India’s support has not always been reciprocated. As new generations of Bangladeshis identify less with the freedom struggle, there are sections in the country which continue to support anti-India activities given birth during Khaleda Zia’s rule. Similarly petro dollars, coupled with siphoned off American funds have long sustained strife in Kashmir, though as a matter of policy Arab governments have treated Kashmir as a bilateral dispute between India and Pakistan. What is happening in Egypt is not even a bilateral dispute. Hence there is no reason for Indian government to get worked up at this moment.  

The argument that India being the world’s largest democracy should give its voice to the uprising doesn’t have much merit. Similar uprising resulted in the creation of a highly fundamentalist and repressive regime in Iran. Power is addictive and political leaders can over time conveniently junk the secular and liberal founding principles when threatened by destabilization. Egypt may not see a similar fate, but if it is going to see a new government, then it will, with or without Indian support. India has a mountain of problems of its own, and an overwhelming majority of them internal. It needs to concentrate on sorting out that mess instead of commenting on matters it does not understand.

1 comment:

  1. As a mark of solidarity I'll too sit on the fence in expressing my opinion on this one :p

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